Unemployment Shifts Lower to 4.1%
Jobs Growth
Labor activity took a leap forward in September, with the market generating 254,000 new jobs. This was the highest gain in six months and higher than the average monthly gain of 203,000 over the prior 12 months. Although August initially seemed to reflect a significant slowdown, the latest revisions resulted in increases totaling 72,000 for the months of July and August.
Top Industries
Following recent trends, the hospitality, healthcare and government sectors showed solid growth in September, with a pickup in construction as well. There were some reversals in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and temporary help services.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate dipped again, from 4.3% in July to 4.2% in August to 4.1% in September.
Wages
In September, average hourly earnings again increased 0.4% compared to the previous month, bringing the past 12-month rate to 4.0%.
Work Week
Time spent on the job slipped by 0.1 hour, putting the average work week at 34.2 hours.
Temporary Job Trends
Employment in the temporary jobs sector contracted in September by 13,800, which compares favorably to a loss of 21,600 jobs a year ago.
What Does It All Mean?
September offered good news to the nation. An unexpected surge in employment this past month, with another small dip in unemployment and continuity in wage advances, brought sighs of relief to all those fearing a recession. Recently, a number of economic indicators have pointed to a less than stellar outlook. A breakout jobs growth report for September set those concerns aside, especially given the fact that the Federal Reserve finally lowered interest rates. While the impact of that action, as well as any effects from the recent but short-lived dockworkers’ strike and hurricane damage, will not be felt for a while, the outlook is far brighter than it has been in recent months.
Just as last month’s drop in hiring activity helped spur recessionary fears, the most recent report of a surge had the opposite effect. If the past is any indication, this seesawing may very well continue in the future. All of this happens against a backdrop of other compelling trends. Some have long been in play, such as the aging of the boomer generation and their exit from the workforce; others are more emergent, such as the impact of artificial intelligence on the pace of productivity and the nature of work. All of these factors must be considered, and if possible, integrated into workforce strategy and planning, although few are controllable.
Where does that leave employers? As is usually the case in life, the future is a mix of the known and unknown. It is best to consider the unknowns but focus more on those elements that can be controlled. That may be less macro than desired, but it offers a certain measure of influence over the future. Knowing that a strong and motivated workforce offers a compelling hedge against whatever the future brings, it always pays to focus on people.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Staffing Industry Analysts, ABC, CNN, CNBC, FOX Business, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes.
